Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a643746327813d9a3c54ede2fce5e74685c4269b4ea8b8568e66a473bc68d49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 6,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…d091backed No | 14c | 1,017$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.89 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked No | 2c | 999.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 30c | 804.72$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.98 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 606.03$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 41c | 546.47$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.13 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 28c | 427.23$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.46 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed No | 74c | 395.23$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.21 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 261.74$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 248.75$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb80…d0e3backed Yes | 34c | 203.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.61 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 76c | 193.16$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.37 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 30c | 187.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.84 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 48c | 167.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 69c | 142.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 20c | 127.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 124.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 55c | 110.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 74c | 103.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 100.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 60c | 98.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 29c | 96.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked Yes | 59c | 95.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…708cbacked Yes | 52c | 95.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 30c | 94.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 64c | 87.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 76c | 79.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 69c | 76.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 20c | 72.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 68.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 67.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 78c | 61.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 78c | 61.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 76c | 60.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 37c | 53.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 66c | 51.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 49.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 46.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 65c | 41.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 64c | 39.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 36.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 34.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 31c | 34.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 28.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 25.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 25.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe365…c0d8backed No | 79c | 23.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc2…b106backed No | 80c | 23.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 51c | 22.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 51c | 22.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 76c | 19.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 67c | 19.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 67c | 17.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed No | 75c | 16.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x692a…e65fbacked No | 73c | 15.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…b6aabacked No | 68c | 15.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 80c | 14.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.