Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8b54c49f19599afe690118c8e8aaaff2c21a955970112083f7c1060f512f687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 2c | 939.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…d091backed Yes | 2c | 604.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 485.11$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 385.42$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 65c | 226.54$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 27c | 222.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 27c | 219.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 204.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 35c | 170.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 36c | 146.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 144.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 135.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 65c | 133.76$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 129.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 35c | 128.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 38c | 109.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 30c | 102.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 66c | 95.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…5be7backed Yes | 31c | 88.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 36c | 87.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 35c | 87.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 86.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 80.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 37c | 78.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 77.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 74.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed Yes | 37c | 50.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Yes | 34c | 48.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 66c | 46.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 28c | 42.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 41.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 76c | 39.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 60c | 39.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 75c | 38.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 66c | 38.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 36c | 37.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 67c | 33.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 30.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 74c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 74c | 25.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 69c | 23.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 67c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…79a6backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 66c | 17.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 67c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 66c | 17.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 63c | 17.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.