Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb778fd07e98fc5c90d0da72fb5bdb7a8e0c7b884f64ad9cc5a4c645fb38c83e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 11c | 1,031$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.95 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 53c | 585.27$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.12 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 346.57$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 45c | 298.68$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 53c | 297.87$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.06 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 6c | 241.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 36c | 218.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 208.35$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed No | 11c | 180.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 59c | 162.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…33abbacked No | 62c | 155.62$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 64c | 150.93$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 40c | 146.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 138.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 63c | 138.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 138.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 39c | 135.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 132.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 60c | 122.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 49c | 106.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 41c | 98.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 43c | 93.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…5be7backed No | 51c | 90.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 41c | 87.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 43c | 84.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 84.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 22c | 72.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked Yes | 40c | 57.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…324fbacked Yes | 52c | 54.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked Yes | 40c | 54.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8394…57ddbacked Yes | 37c | 53.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 52.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 51.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 70c | 51.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…5671backed No | 62c | 51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 48.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 56c | 46.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 60c | 45.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 61c | 42.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 42.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x27c6…52a5backed No | 62c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 52c | 41.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 36c | 40.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 80c | 39.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 47c | 36.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 42c | 33.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 44c | 33.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f49…2f6cbacked Yes | 38c | 31.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccd…6e3cbacked No | 62c | 31.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 65c | 29.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 40c | 29.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f9…2f5cbacked Yes | 38c | 29.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 41c | 29.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 50c | 28.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 55c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 78c | 27.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 41c | 25.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 60c | 24.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 55c | 24.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 61c | 24.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 53c | 23.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 64c | 22.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 60c | 21.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 62c | 18.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 63c | 17.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.