Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac81f2b5833612f34ff8f58583d38e2ee4dddaff99ef4ea9ac138baf232a11c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x251f…0a14backed Yes | 0c | 39,154$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 1c | 931.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 451.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 298.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 21c | 258.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 21c | 216.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 79c | 216.2$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 24c | 198.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 191.43$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 172.43$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 170.79$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 11c | 162.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 25c | 158.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 18c | 152.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 136.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 23c | 126.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 120.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 29c | 120.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 16c | 116.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 16c | 115.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 78c | 113.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 76c | 110.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked Yes | 22c | 108.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked Yes | 22c | 108.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 20c | 97.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c4…475dbacked Yes | 19c | 91.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 21c | 89.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed No | 78c | 87.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 81.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 74.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…416fbacked Yes | 32c | 73.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ec…4d4cbacked Yes | 22c | 69.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…ced8backed Yes | 21c | 69.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…49b3backed Yes | 19c | 62.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 23c | 51.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 23c | 47.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 45.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 43.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 79c | 39.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 34.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0f4fbacked No | 80c | 33.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 32.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…5870backed No | 78c | 26.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037d…ad13backed No | 77c | 25.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 78c | 20.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 19.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.