Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf18ae8db54ebfa6fa391c52d80611d89478b0f98d4a8f9f66d9eaec8ac603f8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $358,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $358,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 0c | 77,920$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 41,524$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.08 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7633…f097backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b10…49b9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 2c | 7,512$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.23 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…867bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,095$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 3c | 2,820$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…569cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,761$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,715$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.85 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,500$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.39 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed Yes | 4c | 2,344$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 153 | 12.4%19 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 2,200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,724$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 1c | 1,699$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed Yes | 2c | 1,508$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 480 | 6.9%33 W · 447 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc92…cc39backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 1,350$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 9c | 1,326$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 2c | 1,137$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 182 | 4.4%8 W · 174 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,035$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 94 | 16%15 W · 79 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…d091backed Yes | 2c | 1,023$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +254.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 3c | 1,019$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 902.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 852.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 781.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc6…0c10backed Yes | 2c | 753.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 748.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…87bebacked Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 2c | 667.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 2c | 628.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…b267backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 8.5%6 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cd…f37bbacked Yes | 2c | 592.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 12c | 549.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 502.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…9a02backed Yes | 13c | 396.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…7a4abacked Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 6c | 310.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 14.6%14 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…02edbacked Yes | 11c | 227.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5991…6340backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…4859backed Yes | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 233 | 14.2%33 W · 200 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.