Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdac03a823f505096e35d51e6006d6a50f5b76197e90a80a0e56f1e8dac8cf869

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $363,807
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $86,252

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $363,807 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	29,011$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.44	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	11,883$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.23	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	1c	10,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02cb…569cbacked Yes	1c	9,828$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.82	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-45%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	6,388$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.76	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	5,186$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.87	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	1c	5,012$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.94	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	3c	5,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	4,560$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.97	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6d…a2a1backed Yes	5c	4,151$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+74.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc92…cc39backed Yes	1c	3,800$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	3,587$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.61	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	2c	3,456$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.72	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	3,108$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.95	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes	5c	3,061$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.3	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	3,033$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.37	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	3,011$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.46	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	5c	2,517$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.93	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	9c	2,500$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08be…1b37backed Yes	2c	2,451$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	4c	2,200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.99	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	5c	2,126$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	3c	2,100$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.4	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,071$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.52	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,044$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.84	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	2,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	1,739$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.17	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,620$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.96	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7df…0723backed Yes	2c	1,583$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.75	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	1,525$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	1,525$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	1,519$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.65	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed Yes	2c	1,500$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-38%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	1,374$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.66	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	3c	1,296$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.55	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	2c	1,276$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	2c	1,266$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	3c	1,135$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Yes	4c	1,011$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.8	79	17.7%14 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	840.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa967…f0b4backed Yes	1c	832.75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	800$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	2c	794.82$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.67	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	2c	787.04$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes	5c	632.47$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	599$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes	2c	575$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	168	14.9%25 W · 143 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	4c	458.52$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.49	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63c4…f595backed Yes	2c	454.55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	77	10.4%8 W · 69 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	4c	446.14$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.98	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	7c	439.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes	4c	436$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	222	27%60 W · 162 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x271f…b8ebbacked Yes	6c	428.18$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.06	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-18%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes	5c	400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	345	15.9%55 W · 290 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1179…a07ebacked Yes	3c	330.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68ec…7c22backed Yes	3c	324.66$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.21	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	5c	241.13$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	30c	185.49$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.63	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event