Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f8a1e8d6afc78c37076084fa38fdfde3b72e496ba69cc6fe5b2ffb657eeb775

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $167,149
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $95,335

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,149 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	24,810$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.62	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	0c	20,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	1c	10,263$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.52	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb355…f149backed Yes	1c	8,779$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.9	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	5,080$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	3,174$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,055$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.83	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	4c	2,500$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.48	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	1c	2,117$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.17	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	4c	2,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10cd…f37bbacked Yes	1c	1,802$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	7c	1,511$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.66	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	1,351$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.84	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	8c	1,202$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.42	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	1,015$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.39	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	5c	808.41$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.85	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	738.76$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.49	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	737.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	2c	600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes	8c	562.89$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.61	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	289.45$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.43	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45dc…9179backed Yes	8c	252.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d3…cc0dbacked Yes	7c	228.57$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes	6c	198.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	9c	151.88$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event