Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db2e193ed837f1b8abedc2464a80d7afc2ed8375781e9f1001bdb84b4c7334d

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $343,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $110,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,869 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	29,498$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.24	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	1c	20,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	1c	7,991$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.9	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	5,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.41	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	0c	4,795$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.24	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0431…1af9backed Yes	0c	4,700$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	0c	4,460$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.84	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	4,233$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.79	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	3,844$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02cb…569cbacked Yes	1c	3,826$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.49	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-45%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,848$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.86	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e2d…2b55backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,198$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.19	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	2,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	19c	2,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	1c	1,894$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	1c	1,886$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.04	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	1c	1,840$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63c4…f595backed Yes	1c	1,667$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	77	10.4%8 W · 69 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6e…4ec7backed Yes	1c	1,667$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	1,564$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	1c	1,107$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.93	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	1,053$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.85	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes	2c	909.02$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	895.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	41c	134$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.86	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1000…b7b4backed No	58c	87.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.83	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event