Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x487c308a9cccfd67f1550e04d5091ef6a071d57ea80507e0f9f89240ec46267f

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $374,816
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $107,005

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $374,816 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3f21…3bcebacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02cb…569cbacked Yes	1c	17,244$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.1	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-45%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	16,342$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.37	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	0c	15,000$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.05	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	0c	11,361$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.55	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	2c	8,636$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.94	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	1c	7,639$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.83	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	5,696$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.36	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	2c	4,884$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	4,550$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.39	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	4,287$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.36	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,158$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.07	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	4,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes	3c	3,518$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf48…136dbacked Yes	0c	3,326$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	2,933$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.35	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	2,347$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08be…1b37backed Yes	2c	2,234$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7df…0723backed Yes	2c	2,100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.8	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa967…f0b4backed Yes	1c	2,100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.78	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	2c	2,061$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.06	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	2,050$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	2c	2,050$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.98	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	10c	2,004$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.92	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	1,997$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.02	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,868$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	1,843$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.73	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	1,645$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.29	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	1,559$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.71	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	1,507$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed Yes	1c	1,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-38%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,462$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.13	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes	1c	1,391$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.76	222	27%60 W · 162 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	2c	1,340$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.22	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	2c	1,302$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.37	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	1,300$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	2c	1,062$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	1c	1,006$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	125	8.8%11 W · 114 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	167	16.2%27 W · 140 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.15	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.29	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6e…4ec7backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	989.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	910$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.77	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc831…0111backed Yes	4c	819.54$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.58	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	4c	700.63$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.77	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	2c	627.37$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcade…db51backed Yes	4c	550$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	7cpaid	+138.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5314…323ebacked Yes	4c	289.19$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	41c	134$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.86	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1000…b7b4backed No	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event