NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd936e819c225bf7387980703461a4747d2c3709320c2d2825918e53851e4198
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 28c | 5,367$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.35 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 72c | 4,795$3,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.68 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 20c | 932.31$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.84 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 79c | 883.65$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.17 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 74c | 356.9$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08d…9ccfbacked Under | 27c | 314$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 19c | 271.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Under | 11c | 184.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 72c | 167.27$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 21c | 142.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 15c | 140.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Over | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 73c | 124.15$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 79c | 122.49$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 75c | 113.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…08f9backed Under | 25c | 103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -78%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 12c | 102.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 75c | 100.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 14c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8876…8963backed Under | 26c | 76.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 29c | 68.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…5294backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe750…fd31backed Under | 28c | 60.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 75c | 46.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 75c | 43.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 77c | 30.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Over | 80c | 26.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…f13cbacked Over | 74c | 23.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…73f6backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9603…de5ebacked Over | 76c | 17.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Over | 69c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…7c68backed Over | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 75c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 75c | 13.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5this page
- Canadiens vs. SabresSabres won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-2.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.