NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e5be4a8a0ba421811736b2a7441e98cadd9c80a3bbb1419958411d9188b9b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 42c | 3,982$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.48 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…8e2bbacked Under | 58c | 3,575$2,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…07adbacked Under | 59c | 2,543$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.77 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Over | 42c | 1,391$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.26 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 997.67$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.07 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…fcf7backed Under | 56c | 959.39$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 3c | 835.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.03 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…c4bfbacked Under | 58c | 830$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Under | 16c | 802.81$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.81 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 44c | 735.96$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.82 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 58c | 685.19$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 663.58$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.43 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 45c | 511.19$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.82 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 41c | 413$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.33 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 53c | 323.61$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…40fcbacked Under | 46c | 304.53$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.53 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 267.69$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.44 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Over | 45c | 234.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Under | 16c | 228.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.58 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 77c | 213$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.01 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Under | 46c | 202.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.95 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Under | 49c | 201.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Under | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 59c | 145.81$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 50c | 128.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 122.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 65c | 114.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 48c | 107.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 49c | 104.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 58c | 102.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Under | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 138 | 60.9%84 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 55c | 93.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…74a4backed Under | 40c | 88.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 58c | 87.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 38c | 85.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 58c | 74.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 58c | 74.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 59c | 73.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 48c | 73.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 41c | 73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 59c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 67c | 70.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 44c | 69.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +11.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 46c | 62.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa389…d70ebacked Under | 34c | 58.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Under | 35c | 57.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…93c0backed Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cac…988ebacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 56c | 49.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 58c | 45.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa01a…1c6ebacked Over | 42c | 40.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 65c | 40.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 55c | 38.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…379dbacked Over | 68c | 36.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 41c | 33.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 45c | 27.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…729cbacked Over | 79c | 25.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…bf01backed Over | 42c | 25.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 58c | 24.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 66c | 24.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 56c | 21.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c78…e701backed Under | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…a50bbacked Under | 59c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Canadiens vs. SabresSabres won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-2.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.