Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac544446eee966d0d7beb87068291331b427a5639cc73e20c36e464c9a4e8c1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $377,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $347,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $377,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 0c | 55,715$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.95 | 133 | 15.8%21 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 79c | 15,988$12,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,362.42 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 1c | 10,300$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 5c | 9,870$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.7 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Yes | 18c | 8,807$1,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.16 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes | 3c | 6,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 153 | 9.8%15 W · 138 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,562$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 32c | 5,494$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.44 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 17c | 5,491$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.07 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 23c | 5,269$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.67 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 20c | 5,034$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.76 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 25c | 4,926$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.71 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 27c | 4,907$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.2 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…6906backed Yes | 21c | 4,465$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.42 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.39 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 4c | 3,850$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.18 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 14c | 3,821$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.44 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 11c | 3,660$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.63 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 34c | 3,658$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.32 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 25c | 3,653$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.65 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes | 3c | 3,584$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5001…bc10backed Yes | 15c | 3,468$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.73 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 3c | 3,344$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 25c | 3,120$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.04 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 26c | 2,929$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.22 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,822$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.65 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…9cb5backed Yes | 18c | 2,624$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.21 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 2,416$1,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.7 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3a…4580backed No | 77c | 2,376$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.02 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes | 11c | 2,309$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.61 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 2,111$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.83 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,076$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.01 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,926$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.63 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 14c | 1,802$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.52 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 24c | 1,782$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.66 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 1,706$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,683$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,570$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.04 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 22c | 1,565$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.16 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 19c | 1,551$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.84 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 15c | 1,515$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.38 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 76c | 1,473$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.72 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,450$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.6 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes | 2c | 1,440$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed Yes | 14c | 1,405$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,400$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c9…fadabacked Yes | 26c | 1,395$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.56 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d2dcbacked No | 79c | 1,272$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 36c | 1,228$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.42 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 70c | 1,182$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.12 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,175$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.93 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…5be3backed Yes | 20c | 1,150$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.93 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,145$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 1,127$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.07 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,078$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.3 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 42c | 1,000$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.38 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 8c | 999.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x620d…9f02backed Yes | 38c | 994.88$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.82 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 25c | 988.64$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.51 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 959.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 14c | 958.33$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.59 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7eefbacked Yes | 23c | 926.27$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.85 | 263 | 14.8%39 W · 224 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 71c | 904.24$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.48 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 17c | 889.96$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 21c | 872.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.18 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 68c | 757.26$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.32 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 28c | 755.46$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.76 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 6c | 750$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 30c | 715.33$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.1 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 11c | 705.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 14c | 700.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes | 14c | 692.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…a865backed Yes | 35c | 676.08$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.66 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x280f…1963backed No | 79c | 674.99$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.25 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 70c | 650.42$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.6 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 22c | 618.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.71 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…e23ebacked Yes | 33c | 600.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.33 | 238 | 31.1%74 W · 164 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 35c | 589.64$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.37 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 17c | 572.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…5fe3backed Yes | 31c | 572.1$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 26c | 549.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.07 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…fe63backed Yes | 34c | 539.98$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.59 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…5fadbacked Yes | 35c | 522.27$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70be…044dbacked Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc20…8c98backed No | 74c | 499.97$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 32c | 484.06$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.06 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked Yes | 31c | 466.3$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x986d…b351backed Yes | 22c | 450.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 400$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 25c | 399.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde6…040fbacked Yes | 24c | 388.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…569cbacked Yes | 28c | 384.04$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.51 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…ffa2backed Yes | 11c | 379.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 80c | 370.63$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 30c | 360$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.