Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e253cddb1571058a7c02b6960409a5f7602195f8239f18d724495c0a1b2638f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 2c | 14,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.01 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 17c | 11,684$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.95 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 0c | 10,426$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 9,668$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.51 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,885$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 5,778$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 2c | 4,408$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.2 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 2c | 3,305$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 133 | 15.8%21 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…3476backed Yes | 0c | 2,967$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,444$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.66 | 153 | 9.8%15 W · 138 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 1c | 1,969$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,619$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.75 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7eefbacked Yes | 7c | 1,562$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 263 | 14.8%39 W · 224 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x620d…9f02backed Yes | 8c | 1,396$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.44 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Yes | 7c | 1,384$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,059$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 6c | 821.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 709.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 5c | 692.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…569cbacked Yes | 2c | 653.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 528.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 4c | 519.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 11c | 517.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 8c | 503.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 12c | 500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 456.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 6c | 452.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 401.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…dbd9backed Yes | 6c | 332.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes | 9c | 330$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…fe63backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d4…74d6backed Yes | 4c | 291$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…0b41backed Yes | 6c | 283.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec81…4d45backed Yes | 6c | 261.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…7803backed Yes | 8c | 261.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 13c | 248.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…d791backed Yes | 7c | 185.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 16c | 122.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…d025backed Yes | 9c | 116.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dd…a325backed Yes | 14c | 104.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf4…1ccabacked Yes | 11c | 100.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.