TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$372,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$415,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,157 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2778…8547backed No2c26,486$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.6713315.8%21 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes69c14,945$10,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,584.4556329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No20c9,418$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,923.1513430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes56c8,631$4,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,828.0614427.1%39 W · 105 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No24c7,416$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,775.3619756.9%112 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c6c…1f86backed No70c7,114$4,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,945.794524.4%11 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No16c4,965$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.14944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No15c4,789$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.1968615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed No13c4,625$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.528812.5%11 W · 77 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No0c4,369$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6262539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No10c4,309$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.675122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No20c3,868$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.539233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes38c3,500$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,158.8531621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No1c3,400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.812424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes24c3,285$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,510.3839723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed No14c3,265$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.0417723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes54c3,183$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.922259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes72c3,100$2,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.6257222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No4c2,652$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.024568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No23c2,528$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.8199410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes52c2,410$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.8953222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No49c2,348$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.6820857.2%119 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5001…bc10backed No12c2,190$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.072611.5%3 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-61.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No77c2,111$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.999057.8%52 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked Yes76c1,999$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.922373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes37c1,959$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.5463021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes57c1,926$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.9640519.8%80 W · 325 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No8c1,893$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.810325.2%26 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked No42c1,883$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.7913844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes75c1,876$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.8850828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70e1…f42fbacked Yes76c1,800$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No10c1,660$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16615844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked No41c1,652$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.3123212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes72c1,610$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.7541230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No26c1,594$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.8216750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No25c1,533$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.2930854.9%169 W · 139 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b4e…128ebacked Yes67c1,504$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.5810652.8%56 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed No20c1,412$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.386524.6%16 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No12c1,411$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.976097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed No9c1,372$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.979423.4%22 W · 72 L-16.1wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-55.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No20c1,370$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.6219053.7%102 W · 88 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No75c1,328$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00034833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c1,316$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.382,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes31c1,246$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.2527024.4%66 W · 204 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes55c1,242$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.1954122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No53c1,234$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.3210330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes74c1,213$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.84427.3%12 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes40c1,202$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.57826.9%21 W · 57 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8409…753dbacked No14c1,200$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.74146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No25c1,181$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.0428025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes59c1,172$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.9311729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No14c1,159$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.6814451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No16c1,125$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9110052%52 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes54c1,116$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.7257420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8641…e3acbacked Yes78c1,076$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.691258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed No2c1,048$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255014%7 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes28c1,010$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.7914829.1%43 W · 105 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdaa…fec8backed No8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805529.1%16 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11c5…79d8backed Yes21c990.13$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.076124.6%15 W · 46 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No45c954.94$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.311,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed No15c919.38$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4519124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3335…fbd6backed No30c877.94$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.388532.9%28 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e9c…9a07backed No12c866.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005334%18 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes19c863.78$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.487821.8%17 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No47c846$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.1221959.8%131 W · 88 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes43c807.46$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.4616023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No37c800.19$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.6623955.2%132 W · 107 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes31c797.61$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.6132529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No51c757.82$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.061238.1%10 W · 113 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28c0…d319backed Yes60c713.99$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.445556.4%31 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked No8c700$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568528.2%24 W · 61 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42b…afe0backed No13c700$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902250%11 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x275b…1780backed Yes38c691.9$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.754334.9%15 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes38c688.09$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.6417335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes23c667.21$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.7510829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes59c646.4$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.4827547.6%131 W · 144 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bd8…14dcbacked No11c629.97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes46c623.12$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.5931224.7%77 W · 235 L-0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes73c600$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16015929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c571$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.992,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No78c550$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42729225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf270…5fe3backed Yes59c539.11$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.24520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb5…899dbacked Yes28c538.81$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.483141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes53c531.27$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.287917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…5fadbacked Yes18c521.17$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.172343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked No8c505$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0522023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36aa…8ae1backed No74c500$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.291172.7%8 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes75c495$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.9514928.2%42 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes18c492$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.447912.7%10 W · 69 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes68c464.71$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1325012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes55c450.34$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.1187618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No14c450.04$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6514219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes63c450$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.48321.7%18 W · 65 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-47.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3bd7…fa0cbacked Yes56c449.73$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.732347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes69c430.09$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1934427%93 W · 251 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed No23c429.74$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4348819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13e7…c338backed No74c425.43$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.21435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes31c420$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.21,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes74c420$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.682614.9%123 W · 703 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x981b…c11cbacked Yes47c414.21$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.55538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.