Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebeaf8a7579a14906fbdc1d50beb3b6acd3bdf011facd1597f58b4077aa38b1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $372,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $415,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2778…8547backed No | 2c | 26,486$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.67 | 133 | 15.8%21 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 69c | 14,945$10,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,584.45 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 20c | 9,418$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.15 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 56c | 8,631$4,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,828.06 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 24c | 7,416$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.36 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6c…1f86backed No | 70c | 7,114$4,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,945.79 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 16c | 4,965$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.1 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 15c | 4,789$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.19 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed No | 13c | 4,625$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.52 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 0c | 4,369$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 10c | 4,309$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.6 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 20c | 3,868$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.53 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 38c | 3,500$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,158.85 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 1c | 3,400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 24c | 3,285$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510.38 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed No | 14c | 3,265$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.04 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 54c | 3,183$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.92 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 72c | 3,100$2,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.62 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 4c | 2,652$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.02 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 23c | 2,528$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.81 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 52c | 2,410$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.89 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 2,348$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.68 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5001…bc10backed No | 12c | 2,190$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.07 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 2,111$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.99 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd15a…80dbbacked Yes | 76c | 1,999$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.92 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,959$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.54 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 57c | 1,926$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.96 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 8c | 1,893$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked No | 42c | 1,883$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.79 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 75c | 1,876$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.88 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e1…f42fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,800$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 10c | 1,660$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked No | 41c | 1,652$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.31 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 72c | 1,610$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.75 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 1,594$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.82 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 1,533$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.29 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…128ebacked Yes | 67c | 1,504$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.58 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed No | 20c | 1,412$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.38 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 12c | 1,411$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.97 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 9c | 1,372$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 1,370$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.62 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 75c | 1,328$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 1,316$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.38 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,246$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.25 | 270 | 24.4%66 W · 204 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 55c | 1,242$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.19 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 53c | 1,234$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.32 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 74c | 1,213$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.8 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 40c | 1,202$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.5 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked No | 14c | 1,200$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.7 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 25c | 1,181$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.04 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 59c | 1,172$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.93 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 14c | 1,159$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.68 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 16c | 1,125$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.91 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 54c | 1,116$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.72 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8641…e3acbacked Yes | 78c | 1,076$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed No | 2c | 1,048$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 28c | 1,010$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.79 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…fec8backed No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…79d8backed Yes | 21c | 990.13$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.07 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 45c | 954.94$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.31 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 15c | 919.38$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.45 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 877.94$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.38 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed No | 12c | 866.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…fe63backed Yes | 19c | 863.78$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.48 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 47c | 846$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.12 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 43c | 807.46$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.46 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 800.19$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.66 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 31c | 797.61$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.61 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 51c | 757.82$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.06 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…d319backed Yes | 60c | 713.99$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.44 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked No | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…afe0backed No | 13c | 700$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x275b…1780backed Yes | 38c | 691.9$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.75 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 38c | 688.09$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.64 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 23c | 667.21$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.75 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 59c | 646.4$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.48 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…14dcbacked No | 11c | 629.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 46c | 623.12$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.59 | 312 | 24.7%77 W · 235 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 73c | 600$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 571$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 78c | 550$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…5fe3backed Yes | 59c | 539.11$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…899dbacked Yes | 28c | 538.81$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.48 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 53c | 531.27$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.2 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…5fadbacked Yes | 18c | 521.17$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 8c | 505$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…8ae1backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 75c | 495$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70be…044dbacked Yes | 18c | 492$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.44 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 68c | 464.71$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.13 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 55c | 450.34$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.11 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 14c | 450.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 63c | 450$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.4 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…fa0cbacked Yes | 56c | 449.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.73 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 69c | 430.09$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed No | 23c | 429.74$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e7…c338backed No | 74c | 425.43$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 31c | 420$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.2 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 74c | 420$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 826 | 14.9%123 W · 703 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…c11cbacked Yes | 47c | 414.21$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.