TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Hurricanes vs. Flyers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hurricanesof Hurricanes, Flyers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$891,290
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$954,041

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $891,290 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 690 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Hurricanes64c166,614$106,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,981.1515054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Flyers36c100,000$36,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,00022443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Flyers45c41,058$18,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,296.012433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Flyers35c32,299$11,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,304.6156649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Hurricanes50c31,878$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,878.362564%16 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Flyers37c29,000$10,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,728.773046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed Hurricanes47c27,634$12,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,646.187545.3%34 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1626…9e8dbacked Flyers0c27,380$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Flyers36c26,154$9,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,415.5911644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Hurricanes63c21,644$13,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,008.267051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Flyers46c20,591$9,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,423.647038.6%27 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb8e…34cebacked Hurricanes63c20,000$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,399.873164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bec…b215backed Flyers36c19,785$7,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,122.4516442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e1…ec43backed Flyers41c16,693$6,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,844.291338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c0a…a9bebacked Hurricanes48c12,000$5,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,2401947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Hurricanes65c11,655$7,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,136.119260.9%56 W · 36 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Hurricanes65c9,856$6,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,459.8828749.8%143 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Flyers53c9,000$4,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,77015448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Flyers35c8,571$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.8452050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ab…3d8bbacked Flyers36c8,000$2,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,871.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Hurricanes64c7,832$5,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,819.5940356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Flyers36c7,750$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,79010146.5%47 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Hurricanes60c6,909$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.083036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-37.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Hurricanes65c6,737$4,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,386.3819759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Flyers36c6,700$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4054555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hurricanes64c6,542$4,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,355.0661950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Flyers52c6,329$3,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2918345.8%38 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Hurricanes61c6,172$3,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,422.933,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed Flyers36c6,160$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,217.55230.8%16 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Hurricanes63c6,001$3,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.54555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Flyers44c5,980$2,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,633.036527.7%18 W · 47 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Flyers43c5,695$2,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.3333837.9%128 W · 210 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Flyers36c5,551$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,988.61,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Flyers40c5,160$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,048.233234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f3…bf55backed Flyers37c5,135$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3082…9b55backed Flyers37c5,135$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9003132.3%10 W · 21 L-5.9wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-43.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Flyers35c5,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.983531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-30.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Flyers48c4,915$2,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.5989636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf11…c679backed Flyers37c4,865$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8005446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Flyers48c4,756$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,272.7214946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hurricanes59c4,717$2,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.472,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Flyers55c4,274$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.251,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Hurricanes48c3,849$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,013.6218452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Flyers37c3,752$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.4727044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Flyers42c3,689$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.6317353.8%93 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Hurricanes70c3,283$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.285276.9%40 W · 12 L+11.6wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+42.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hurricanes52c3,183$1,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.481,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Hurricanes59c3,037$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.316538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Hurricanes47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.9431550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e9…aba8backed Flyers37c2,982$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.5825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2b7…500fbacked Hurricanes64c2,900$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0442552%13 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Hurricanes65c2,795$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.837754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Hurricanes65c2,783$1,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.214551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Flyers50c2,777$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.626154%141 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Hurricanes58c2,736$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.553174.2%23 W · 8 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd515…d9a6backed Hurricanes64c2,678$1,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd95…5301backed Flyers37c2,654$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Hurricanes65c2,502$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.1622853.9%123 W · 105 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Flyers37c2,500$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91513333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Flyers36c2,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90031848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Flyers36c2,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9883652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Flyers52c2,477$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.98252.4%43 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7002…395cbacked Hurricanes64c2,344$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.751172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+36.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Flyers50c2,267$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.4640351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x973b…a912backed Flyers53c2,208$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1702356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a0f1backed Flyers51c2,193$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.421233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-43.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Hurricanes58c2,029$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.9122250%111 W · 111 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc0…d9f4backed Hurricanes59c1,986$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.032759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Flyers55c1,951$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.461,02853.2%547 W · 481 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Hurricanes65c1,923$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.087761%47 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24bc…1b77backed Hurricanes58c1,691$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.8212258.2%71 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Hurricanes63c1,634$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.8989249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Flyers37c1,622$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005455.6%30 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Hurricanes64c1,549$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.581457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+46.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Hurricanes47c1,500$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79530946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9762…73fbbacked Hurricanes64c1,466$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.843873.7%28 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Flyers47c1,443$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.9816446.3%76 W · 88 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Flyers48c1,439$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.1413850.7%70 W · 68 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Hurricanes65c1,421$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.1516253.7%87 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Flyers51c1,359$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.6328652.4%150 W · 136 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8409…35ebbacked Hurricanes62c1,219$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.751650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fef…a76ebacked Flyers40c1,203$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Flyers30c1,182$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.435551%181 W · 174 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf09b…584ebacked Flyers34c1,178$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.572236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Hurricanes61c1,123$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.8212859.4%76 W · 52 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Hurricanes63c1,100$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40733652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Flyers35c1,099$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.741,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490e…42f1backed Flyers32c1,058$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Hurricanes52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4803969.2%27 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+41%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Flyers37c1,000$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36527445.6%125 W · 149 L+1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7071…bb4dbacked Flyers37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Flyers36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3604042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Hurricanes65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35011153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed Flyers37c1,000$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3687925.3%20 W · 59 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Hurricanes65c999.99$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35010346.6%48 W · 55 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Hurricanes63c976.56$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.3362249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Hurricanes48c962.28$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.49157.1%52 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed Flyers41c955.24$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.6520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e58…3864backed Flyers37c943.05$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.936246.8%29 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…5dccbacked Flyers36c933.93$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.