TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,195,943
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,856,719

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,195,943 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf661…2259backed Yes2c300,935$5,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,064.02475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3f5…e804backed Yes2c158,057$2,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,889.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes0c97,555$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.06580%0 W · 58 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf71f…043abacked Yes2c82,031$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.461136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7607…c74bbacked Yes1c75,285$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.67313.2%1 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes2c50,024$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0b…840abacked Yes2c48,742$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.66140%0 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcc8c…90f8backed Yes1c36,331$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a36…bd8ebacked Yes2c33,333$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes0c33,330$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99254%1 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e3f…9ed2backed Yes2c31,937$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.46267.7%2 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-85.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes1c28,882$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.232023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed Yes0c28,123$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.432425%6 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d8b…1fb1backed Yes2c25,415$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.68714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef22…8c02backed Yes1c25,000$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.87140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66a2…5577backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2cf…7811backed Yes0c24,298$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe340…ce0dbacked Yes2c22,348$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ff…3ac7backed Yes2c20,811$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92ce…cd74backed Yes0c19,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x576f…819abacked Yes2c18,177$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.58454.4%2 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-81.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xafc0…5087backed Yes2c16,763$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.732722.2%6 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3250…7d17backed Yes0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed Yes1c15,682$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes1c13,526$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.221520%3 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x219d…145bbacked Yes2c13,061$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.69150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf099…5ce8backed Yes1c11,663$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf75f…0988backed Yes1c11,560$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.93326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-81.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes1c11,499$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299b…47b9backed Yes0c11,298$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2790%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a87…79a9backed Yes0c11,270$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4101…1faabacked Yes1c11,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7562…4984backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11f2…0158backed Yes1c9,864$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e9c…5b1dbacked Yes0c7,918$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa7d…a524backed Yes1c6,794$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dcf…e5ffbacked Yes2c6,773$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c6,709$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes2c6,668$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1421011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0605…1593backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-79.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2140…605fbacked Yes2c6,149$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.161625%4 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-62.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3716…238cbacked Yes0c6,047$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7990%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes0c5,800$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.63315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-65.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x862a…8409backed Yes2c5,613$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e84…86b4backed Yes0c5,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33f3…a860backed Yes2c5,319$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes0c5,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21378.1%3 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17f…acd8backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1664…a0cebacked Yes1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-80.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8785…0cabbacked Yes1c4,610$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9611…1c01backed Yes0c4,600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae69…282fbacked Yes2c4,348$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x151f…5b45backed Yes1c4,111$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a3e…fde0backed Yes1c4,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5570%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62bc…97acbacked Yes1c3,937$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2780%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes0c3,809$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.681246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d5…8464backed Yes2c3,776$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1881…edd9backed Yes2c3,566$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552910.3%3 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-41%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfecf…13d2backed Yes1c3,511$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6270%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3631…1522backed Yes2c3,400$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2b0…8bd0backed Yes0c3,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27d3…faadbacked Yes2c3,220$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes2c3,150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.13310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01aa…e6f4backed Yes1c3,090$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b8…3cd5backed Yes2c3,049$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9380%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e16…760bbacked Yes2c3,032$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7a…6875backed Yes2c3,005$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.052711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes1c3,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.44325.6%11 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff6…7c7bbacked Yes1c2,778$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8339…54f5backed Yes2c2,694$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe42b…6bb6backed Yes1c2,520$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f0e…3165backed Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20254%1 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes2c2,457$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.94515.6%7 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-64.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8df…8a93backed Yes1c2,386$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x386c…8f38backed Yes1c2,318$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9118…b410backed Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270f…5e39backed Yes1c2,164$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe10e…7f23backed Yes1c2,122$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0645…cd22backed Yes2c2,033$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eee…2cecbacked Yes2c2,018$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bab…2b30backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes2c1,955$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.94707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ced…443abacked Yes2c1,900$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.972913.8%4 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-74%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43a7…0b46backed Yes1c1,880$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.055628.6%16 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c1,800$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5692.9%2 W · 67 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ad…bd19backed Yes2c1,784$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.33147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf62f…859abacked Yes2c1,765$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe74e…2878backed Yes1c1,728$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d64…8f94backed Yes1c1,705$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9570%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85eb…d068backed Yes1c1,667$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa868…add8backed Yes1c1,666$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.69911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c1,600$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9530%0 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3096…58a3backed Yes2c1,515$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.76526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3611…6880backed Yes1c1,377$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c1,345$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.63840%0 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf332…1e5abacked Yes1c1,260$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8482…07d4backed Yes1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13df…ec0fbacked Yes2c1,176$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ee…54b4backed Yes1c1,175$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57d…9689backed Yes1c1,150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.11233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.