Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 August 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa48e401207c355c9fe17ad3d0ea5f4cb081394fed500c03671c7e4da099bd2cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 6,988$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,838.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +956.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 64c | 6,959$4,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,443.73 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 30c | 6,697$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,682.28 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 59c | 6,176$3,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,666.84 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78cb…f366backed No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35b…b542backed Yes | 2c | 5,706$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,590.56 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.75per pick | 7cpaid | +2,239.9%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 3c | 4,993$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,850.44 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,438$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,417.56 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…3429backed Yes | 44c | 4,421$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460.89 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…747bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,518$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,473.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.54per pick | 8cpaid | +1,507.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 29c | 3,157$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,253.21 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 63c | 2,554$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.5 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d40…335ebacked No | 72c | 1,916$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.78 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,107$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.61 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked No | 53c | 944.49$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…6feabacked No | 68c | 898$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.74 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…c198backed Yes | 73c | 723.49$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.34 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 60c | 642.2$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.67 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes | 74c | 578.07$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.19 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 39c | 509.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 18c | 500$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed No | 25c | 410.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.03 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…d359backed Yes | 53c | 350$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.77 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 23c | 318$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 27c | 296.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +135%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5f…55a8backed Yes | 35c | 282.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +553.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 72c | 279.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked Yes | 47c | 278.49$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.71 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…91fdbacked Yes | 42c | 232.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92f…f930backed No | 45c | 222.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked No | 46c | 208.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…b8acbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +204.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed Yes | 66c | 119.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c30…8665backed No | 47c | 101.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…a324backed Yes | 46c | 90.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 86.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fb…9713backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…caf0backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…a65abacked No | 64c | 37.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…600cbacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…65f2backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…49b0backed No | 76c | 26.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…44ecbacked Yes | 70c | 24.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed No | 57c | 23.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6060…f91ebacked Yes | 62c | 19.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…efd8backed Yes | 67c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 August 17-23?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 August 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 August 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 August 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 August 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.