Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 August 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf77324ec555b3fb5d8aa1209d23093e3be7b7c80f218c113876fbcef29bed94a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $213,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 64c | 20,855$13,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,458.64 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2723…8d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 11,932$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.35 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 2c | 11,864$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.52 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 18c | 8,853$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.96 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Yes | 6c | 8,060$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.71 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 19c | 7,904$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.66 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed Yes | 13c | 4,240$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.12 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b40…5011backed Yes | 4c | 2,851$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30cb…b901backed No | 50c | 2,200$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa3…b72fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,160$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 9c | 2,136$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 13c | 1,962$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.08 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,941$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.56 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35b…b542backed Yes | 11c | 1,834$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.34 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.75per pick | 7cpaid | +2,239.9%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x6d40…335ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,496$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…a310backed Yes | 12c | 1,440$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d7…ca2dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,378$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 10cpaid | +903.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 15c | 1,200$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.4 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576a…c4f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,190$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292f…e461backed Yes | 6c | 1,130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 4c | 1,101$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,018$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 976.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…fe6bbacked Yes | 6c | 770.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +496.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…cd03backed Yes | 7c | 738.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +494.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ee…04c2backed Yes | 7c | 648.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 618.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 42c | 610.64$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 12c | 540$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…e42dbacked No | 64c | 536.61$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…333ebacked Yes | 7c | 501.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +371.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 10c | 500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +956.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked Yes | 30c | 391.11$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.02 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5f…0e75backed Yes | 25c | 377.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…7849backed Yes | 5c | 306.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +478.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca68…bd3abacked Yes | 6c | 302$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…7a89backed Yes | 14c | 220$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 8c | 211.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +135%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…03eabacked Yes | 16c | 183.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.62per pick | 18cpaid | +399.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852e…2f9bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5092backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…65f2backed Yes | 21c | 89.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 72.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeade…f936backed Yes | 41c | 72.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 57.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed Yes | 56c | 47.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…91fdbacked Yes | 43c | 43.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…2438backed Yes | 45c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 August 17-23?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 August 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 August 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 August 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 August 17-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.