TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum reach $2,600 August 17-23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$213,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$194,517

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,425 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed No64c20,855$13,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,458.6428113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2723…8d2dbacked Yes3c11,932$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.35170%0 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes2c11,864$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.523915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid+30.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes18c8,853$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.9647721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58b3…653cbacked Yes6c8,060$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.71267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-85.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes19c7,904$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.6687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ec…d630backed Yes13c4,240$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.12729.7%7 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-76%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b40…5011backed Yes4c2,851$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30cb…b901backed No50c2,200$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1001662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaa3…b72fbacked Yes4c2,160$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Yes9c2,136$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-60.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes13c1,962$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.082317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes35c1,941$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.565424.1%13 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+67.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe35b…b542backed Yes11c1,834$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.341181.8%9 W · 2 L+8.3wins+0.75per pick7cpaid+2,239.9%equal weight75+0.23 edge/pick
0x6d40…335ebacked Yes46c1,496$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.131729.4%5 W · 12 L-5.1wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-42.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x07cb…a310backed Yes12c1,440$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+43.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d7…ca2dbacked Yes18c1,378$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick10cpaid+903.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes15c1,200$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.42417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes8c1,200$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7612012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x576a…c4f0backed Yes2c1,190$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x292f…e461backed Yes6c1,130$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes4c1,101$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.192270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c1,018$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.061,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c976.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.752922.1%6 W · 286 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…fe6bbacked Yes6c770.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+496.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0bc4…cd03backed Yes7c738.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+494.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4ee…04c2backed Yes7c648.74$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.651637.5%6 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.20per pick17cpaid+119.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes3c618.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.161970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes42c610.64$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.79955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes12c540$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.581437.7%11 W · 132 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked No64c536.61$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…333ebacked Yes7c501.82$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.91616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+371.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes10c500$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.882339.1%9 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+956.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa813…04fbbacked Yes30c391.11$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.029964.6%64 W · 35 L+17.0wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+43.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xcd5f…0e75backed Yes25c377.61$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ce…7849backed Yes5c306.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+478.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca68…bd3abacked Yes6c302$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b12…7a89backed Yes14c220$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.681435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick17cpaid+161.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes8c211.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.511942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+135%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9888…03eabacked Yes16c183.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.97580%4 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.62per pick18cpaid+399.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes11c150$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.151031.9%2 W · 101 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x852e…2f9bbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5092backed Yes10c120$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x083c…65f2backed Yes21c89.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.71145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No47c72.9$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3731523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeade…f936backed Yes41c72.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes25c57.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.152931%9 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6e6…79b5backed No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.52572%18 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…d0f8backed Yes56c47.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.893876.3%29 W · 9 L+7.3wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+34.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xaedb…91fdbacked Yes43c43.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa131…2438backed Yes45c41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.33580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+73.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe06a…48c2backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.13177.4%24 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.