Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 August 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e3cc12750efc5594644d28bddcd3479e6d93073c57fa55d476fa30d2058fb4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 55c | 15,369$8,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,503.62 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 50c | 8,231$4,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,105.7 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 25c | 6,508$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,876.5 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78cb…f366backed No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 43c | 3,341$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.66 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…3429backed Yes | 32c | 2,480$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,690.36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 46c | 1,610$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.03 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 26c | 1,490$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.49 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…81dfbacked No | 79c | 1,400$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.89 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 36c | 1,332$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.55 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 41c | 1,151$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.6 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3b…7e98backed Yes | 13c | 1,123$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +340.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…f939backed Yes | 25c | 923.89$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +305.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 2c | 854.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.15 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35b…b542backed Yes | 14c | 815.61$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.91 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.75per pick | 7cpaid | +2,239.9%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked Yes | 21c | 783.16$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.91 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 28c | 637.44$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.96 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd51…1434backed Yes | 16c | 635.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +535.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 401.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.99 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 38c | 319.15$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +956.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…7849backed Yes | 11c | 133.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +478.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…e0efbacked No | 80c | 125.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 107.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…03eabacked Yes | 22c | 89.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.62per pick | 18cpaid | +399.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…cd03backed Yes | 24c | 82.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +494.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…b886backed Yes | 16c | 79.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…d5eebacked No | 76c | 68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 63.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…2438backed Yes | 39c | 51.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed Yes | 55c | 49.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…b401backed Yes | 59c | 41.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…65f2backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 August 17-23?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 August 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 August 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 August 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 August 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.