Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8feb9d39c991731841ded454d25311a4bdc1e55f18707030491edd6c82e7c9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 3c | 12,172$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,800.78 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78cb…f366backed No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,034$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,947.82 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked No | 80c | 3,074$2,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,448.64 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,895 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 6cpaid | +1,024.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…747bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,996$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,845.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.54per pick | 8cpaid | +1,507.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 23c | 2,464$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.88 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…5a12backed Yes | 1c | 2,428$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.61 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +403.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 4c | 2,227$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.1 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30cb…b901backed No | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81db…48f0backed Yes | 7c | 1,333$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.02 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +690%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 23c | 1,308$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +956.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 59c | 1,171$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.06 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,128$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.01 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5f…55a8backed Yes | 12c | 1,066$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +553.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,058$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.96 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +6.8wins | +0.62per pick | 29cpaid | +713.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 42c | 1,000$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…52c4backed Yes | 1c | 859.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.12 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +842%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 800$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 55c | 587.96$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.7 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked Yes | 23c | 520.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.09 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 9c | 470$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.17 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2580…591bbacked Yes | 28c | 357.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +667%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca49…73a7backed Yes | 31c | 322.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +519.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe35b…b542backed Yes | 7c | 290.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.56 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.75per pick | 7cpaid | +2,239.9%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 222.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…ad6bbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…b8acbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +204.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 78c | 173.4$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…afe0backed Yes | 8c | 145.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.82 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…5982backed Yes | 30c | 73.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +924.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed No | 77c | 62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…a65abacked No | 74c | 50.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…600cbacked No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…af42backed No | 78c | 20.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 64c | 16.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…fccabacked No | 79c | 15.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 78c | 13.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 17-23?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 August 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 August 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 August 17-23?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 August 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.