Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf899c1e230cbe8b93cadb9b186fd29f31847ac2d3ad99a5615e5600647015581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $274,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $255,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked No | 0c | 207,500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed No | 0c | 18,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked No | 7c | 7,999$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.09 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +144.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed No | 19c | 3,500$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.95 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 29c | 3,080$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 77c | 2,600$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.12 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…0622backed No | 5c | 1,667$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 73c | 1,500$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.43 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…68d1backed No | 15c | 1,259$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.81 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 1,199$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed No | 11c | 1,123$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.33 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 68c | 899.97$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.49 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 693.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed No | 6c | 623.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…3f72backed No | 12c | 602.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 4c | 512$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked No | 6c | 509.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de1…e0debacked No | 14c | 467.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x541a…eaebbacked No | 19c | 312$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcb…5731backed Yes | 77c | 299.95$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…1517backed No | 26c | 160$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6c…e10dbacked No | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0225…2735backed Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 25c | 118.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 10c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…b412backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 65 | 75.4%49 W · 16 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb9…8bfabacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 14c | 98.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87d…8cafbacked No | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…423bbacked Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa324…c18abacked Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…9bb4backed Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1f…3537backed Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…8ffebacked No | 31c | 39.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3f…d4bfbacked No | 32c | 31.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…8b8abacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 79c | 24.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…e1f3backed Yes | 63c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 May 4-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.