Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 4-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x015b787c843969bbe7a3e894c3a5ada6407d046ad4107f21c8bc7b49b10c7767
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,611$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.78 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +144.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 8c | 6,316$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.98 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf3…7be2backed Yes | 2c | 2,416$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…d6e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,305$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…f6babacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 5c | 1,682$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,166$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…b938backed Yes | 9c | 1,157$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 2c | 945.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59bb…6d65backed Yes | 4c | 931.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 2c | 714.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 650$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 3c | 539.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 423.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 3c | 403$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes | 10c | 179.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886a…0944backed Yes | 13c | 160.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 4-10?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 May 4-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.