Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe80b3aec70ee7a96d156a89a10bd987af160fb86b2505fd74df240109709734b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 1c | 37,993$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.48 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 14c | 13,089$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.7 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6846…2893backed Yes | 0c | 9,984$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…1650backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…6783backed Yes | 0c | 5,692$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 11c | 3,665$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.35 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…81dfbacked No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…1b86backed Yes | 12c | 2,976$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.08 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104a…5b05backed Yes | 18c | 2,778$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,611$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 3c | 1,537$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,431$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a6…10f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…bfb5backed Yes | 9c | 1,078$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…e39dbacked No | 79c | 952.28$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.28 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes | 1c | 950$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 15c | 789.29$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…87d7backed Yes | 1c | 761.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf85…d62ebacked Yes | 3c | 675.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd89…353bbacked Yes | 16c | 599.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…4594backed Yes | 28c | 576.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.69 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…d144backed Yes | 18c | 542.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc33…a4e9backed Yes | 2c | 516.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe956…c4e0backed Yes | 17c | 499.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 2c | 496.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 18c | 488.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 4c | 339$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa199…1b4fbacked Yes | 6c | 309.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3723…ad4dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…c99abacked Yes | 8c | 214.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f9…106dbacked Yes | 16c | 182.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcb…0521backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…ce57backed Yes | 15c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…9ed0backed Yes | 17c | 85.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…19cfbacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55d…7484backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…82b8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 May 4-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.