Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc56825224acab9ebf85428698ee680b601d8d52e3ce04deec8a4ca237044185c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 7c | 7,152$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.03 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes | 8c | 6,709$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.54 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…d819backed Yes | 13c | 5,887$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 1c | 5,229$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 4,792$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…6783backed Yes | 0c | 3,576$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 3,431$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.3 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,566$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe963…1856backed Yes | 20c | 2,541$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 9c | 2,521$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +144.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 12c | 1,685$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.82 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedc…91c8backed Yes | 3c | 881.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 15c | 839.91$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.18 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…b938backed Yes | 10c | 717.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…b347backed Yes | 6c | 699.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 4c | 568.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 6c | 521.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…be16backed Yes | 8c | 500.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 14c | 499.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59bb…6d65backed Yes | 11c | 361.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…f6babacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed Yes | 12c | 220.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked Yes | 7c | 219.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…9ed0backed Yes | 12c | 189.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a3…96b3backed Yes | 11c | 184.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…ff78backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9138backed Yes | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed No | 76c | 93.48$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…bd04backed No | 75c | 65.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 32c | 65.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3a…3b17backed Yes | 27c | 49.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 30cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 74c | 27.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3f…d4bfbacked No | 79c | 18.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 May 4-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.