Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24c23ab048b802beaa8c0d62f7e10ac8c51707a56ed2d0e090332d849e8a71a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $267,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes | 7c | 14,281$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.37 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…7e7dbacked Yes | 30c | 11,806$3,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,596.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed No | 65c | 9,000$5,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,401$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.12 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes | 14c | 7,150$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.35 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x495e…9a96backed Yes | 23c | 6,184$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 14c | 5,850$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.91 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed Yes | 23c | 4,575$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.1 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 30c | 4,259$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.22 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,634$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 27c | 3,274$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 2,874$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed Yes | 16c | 2,070$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…3086backed Yes | 31c | 1,907$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…51f9backed Yes | 26c | 1,812$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf85…d62ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,764$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c2…8915backed Yes | 27c | 1,744$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 78c | 1,605$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.76 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 23c | 1,446$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.17 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,389$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 11c | 1,375$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.71 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe963…1856backed Yes | 47c | 1,300$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…af3abacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…d819backed Yes | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Yes | 13c | 1,209$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.48 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 8c | 1,177$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf74…8865backed Yes | 13c | 1,154$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…b347backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,020$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e1…65c8backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf30…8fbdbacked No | 71c | 982.05$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 37c | 800$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…f218backed Yes | 8c | 660.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 59c | 600$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…bb7ebacked Yes | 20c | 594.81$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…05efbacked No | 67c | 586.35$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.75 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…0622backed No | 71c | 566.79$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.79 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 3c | 476.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 71c | 350$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f3…85debacked Yes | 31c | 322.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4297…e1f1backed Yes | 18c | 321$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…832ebacked Yes | 40c | 315.49$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcb…5731backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…a3f2backed No | 80c | 277.5$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Yes | 13c | 276.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 65c | 261.41$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.57 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a6…10f1backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e74…6d51backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 79c | 222$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…d40bbacked Yes | 5c | 214.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c8…5894backed Yes | 21c | 207.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…a23dbacked No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 51c | 199.95$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa470…5283backed Yes | 38c | 197.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…ce57backed Yes | 26c | 181$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc737…db15backed Yes | 15c | 175.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…c7e9backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…9ed0backed Yes | 36c | 152.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…de14backed Yes | 21c | 151.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ff…05c8backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…b0fbbacked Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…0e59backed Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4faf…ff4bbacked Yes | 49c | 149.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb48…17d7backed Yes | 22c | 144.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 141.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…bd04backed No | 68c | 138.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed No | 73c | 137.63$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa758…444dbacked Yes | 23c | 132.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59bb…6d65backed Yes | 31c | 128.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes | 40c | 125.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a3…96b3backed Yes | 25c | 123.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes | 11c | 112.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57b4backed Yes | 20c | 109.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c8…3ba8backed Yes | 14c | 107.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a83…94f3backed Yes | 32c | 104.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f0…dc0abacked Yes | 35c | 101.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d0…4c47backed Yes | 44c | 100.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 69c | 99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…8ffebacked No | 75c | 98.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 13c | 91.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d9…a756backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…eb6ebacked No | 75c | 87.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afc…0fd5backed No | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes | 52c | 83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87d…8cafbacked No | 61c | 82.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…191cbacked No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…501dbacked No | 71c | 68.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23ef…0112backed No | 70c | 68.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec10…6eb9backed Yes | 20c | 65.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…47cdbacked Yes | 27c | 62.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…7816backed No | 79c | 61.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5521…442abacked No | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…3ef3backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 79c | 50.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…6f84backed Yes | 31c | 47.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…d01cbacked Yes | 37c | 47.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3f…d4bfbacked No | 53c | 46.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 4-10?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 4-10?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 May 4-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.