TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$327,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$356,144

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,092 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda6b…a403backed Yes3c68,247$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.45620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes4c10,241$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.871466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c6,779$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.431,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes26c5,471$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.0787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes3c4,434$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.851031.9%2 W · 101 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes15c4,141$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.123946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62d8…6783backed Yes0c4,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceef…05f5backed No58c3,243$1,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes4c3,179$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.311024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf800…daf7backed Yes2c3,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Yes3c2,500$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.753522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe893…4e83backed Yes5c2,241$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.31150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes2c1,947$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0280%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf07…1b86backed Yes27c1,561$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.453141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes28c1,533$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.3858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de1…e0debacked No59c1,227$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.172055%11 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed Yes42c1,198$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008017.5%14 W · 66 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,164$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.052126.6%14 W · 198 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5572…984ebacked Yes3c1,065$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e1…65c8backed Yes43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x747c…bfb5backed No79c992.98$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.81233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-48.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No53c966.97$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.4813770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes2c965.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7994%4 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes2c958.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.911043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed Yes44c916.18$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400478.5%4 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes4c862$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8811813.6%16 W · 102 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+281.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd89…353bbacked Yes38c800$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30440%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes3c772.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8428113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aa5…473ebacked Yes4c754.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0369…4192backed Yes1c670.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e55…760dbacked Yes3c669.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52429.2%7 W · 17 L+4.8wins+0.20per pick9cpaid+125.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6e0d…1fa6backed Yes8c526.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-88.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed18…e9d8backed Yes4c507.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x703b…51f9backed Yes22c501.81$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe956…c4e0backed Yes45c500$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick30cpaid-89.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103542.9%15 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+109.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8591…43f6backed Yes10c499.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.96520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6685…0622backed No60c496.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.923148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes4c475.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.814146.3%19 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd33…5310backed Yes42c461.49$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.321612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes4c439.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.95590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f91…1b30backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes15c367.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3140643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed36…e096backed Yes57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005226.9%14 W · 38 L-7.4wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x438d…ce57backed Yes6c324$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8367…1e2ebacked No62c312$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.561154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No61c312$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.688625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05a6…10f1backed Yes4c311.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked Yes36c309.98$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1918162.4%113 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30cb…b901backed No55c304.79$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.491662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bcb…5731backed Yes41c299.99$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No80c265.31$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.069054.4%49 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes9c244.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.336613.6%9 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5380…9592backed Yes41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004827.1%13 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4861…9ed0backed Yes26c239.35$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.51825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes12c236.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.361931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes26c215.28$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.01922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-63.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x726f…d8e7backed Yes29c209.14$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8611330.1%34 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc00…122dbacked Yes20c200.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c2…8b8abacked Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60f9…106dbacked Yes43c192.42$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d4…f1f5backed No77c182.71$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.116446.9%30 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf85…d62ebacked Yes22c181.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-86.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fa9…5f77backed No59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.495168.6%35 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b36…0d4bbacked No39c166.67$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.671030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed Yes13c165.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2221651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe87d…8cafbacked No66c152.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.242759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x815d…8648backed Yes12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.851315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7689…8ffebacked Yes9c141.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.411723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c3…d0efbacked No78c128.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.848467.9%57 W · 27 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e3d…bd04backed No73c126.55$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.263762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb48…17d7backed Yes15c126.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d9…988bbacked Yes27c115.28$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc4…6b81backed Yes17c109.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.53825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…85ccbacked Yes46c108$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.681741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffb…933abacked Yes49c101.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc281…e079backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f2…132bbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0c…5292backed No56c98.21$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17cb…d67cbacked Yes17c90$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e71…3b76backed No78c89.74$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xceed…aca1backed Yes27c88.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.571752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9f0…dc0abacked No72c87.47$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.26650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa280…fbbabacked No62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.65875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked Yes29c76.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x207c…52fabacked Yes38c65.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-88.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cb7…93c7backed No79c63.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.437950.6%40 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0012…bff8backed Yes44c63.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.87633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed No57c62.19$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.71353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1a7…b87cbacked Yes36c61.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1968…2261backed Yes25c58.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6edb…a7c7backed No55c57.22$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2f9…8a6ebacked Yes24c53.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd42e…5ca8backed Yes64c45.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf259…eb1abacked Yes45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a84…7101backed No43c44.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.333627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+6.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205038%19 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e3f…d4bfbacked No78c37.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.191080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2164…8ef0backed No40c37.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.76580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+43.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.