Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3d9911ba1712af2c9ec6764ce9e3319e610745e0d0e2101c276a4f4896007d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 77c | 4,533$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.28 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e27…3bcbbacked No | 26c | 3,559$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 69c | 1,129$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.35 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf624…4f7ebacked No | 22c | 1,090$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes | 73c | 799.98$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.99 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 30c | 505.45$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes | 70c | 499.98$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 41 | 82.9%34 W · 7 L | +10.5wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +42%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed No | 22c | 454.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…a3e8backed No | 25c | 358.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc669…53eabacked No | 21c | 327.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e9…64e6backed No | 22c | 228.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed No | 25c | 217.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc7…8a02backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…84e0backed No | 57c | 163.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7269backed No | 25c | 129.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 44c | 121.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 110.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…d219backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 12c | 99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 72c | 98.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9350…bfe1backed No | 22c | 98.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 23c | 96.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd70…b65dbacked No | 22c | 92.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 79c | 89.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 81.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef09…60a8backed No | 22c | 71.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…ef84backed No | 21c | 69.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e06…710fbacked No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e4…e649backed No | 24c | 63.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d7…ded7backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78f8…88adbacked No | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…6e97backed Yes | 55c | 45.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +336.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 78c | 25.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…930abacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 69c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4ccdbacked No | 50c | 21.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…4b71backed Yes | 76c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?this page
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by December 31?No won
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?Yes won
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.