Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57c0ef23bee683721e07836da72e2ef4bacc0ebb1a08f4b9867eed7f01b2669f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcaea…a3e8backed No | 76c | 2,204$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 2c | 1,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 22c | 1,200$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.67 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 25c | 1,012$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.4 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 1c | 888.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 21c | 764.47$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.08 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 78c | 586.11$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked No | 28c | 457.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4044…8de5backed Yes | 74c | 384$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.26per pick | 35cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 41c | 338.46$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc669…53eabacked No | 71c | 217.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 43c | 153.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…6e97backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +336.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…68a4backed No | 69c | 115.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Yes | 29c | 105$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 42c | 94.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 82.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 73c | 80.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 73.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 28c | 67.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 53.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc7…8a02backed No | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc441…fb83backed No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d7…ded7backed No | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…4d34backed No | 47c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…2540backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed5…8aa5backed No | 63c | 21.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3768…cbf7backed No | 78c | 21.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 57c | 20.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…0014backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?this page
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by December 31?No won
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?Yes won
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.