Chess · resolved market
Will Ding Liren win game 4 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa998490de412ca6da43258ee90ff60c472e1fe2441c7cfbe1633ae8ad8dd4f11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 15c | 7,769$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…007fbacked Yes | 20c | 5,500$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 0c | 2,863$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 2,543$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…f83bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfef3…2ef0backed Yes | 22c | 779.7$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe213…17aebacked Yes | 28c | 720.66$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379d…54efbacked Yes | 19c | 295.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 268.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…1f3fbacked Yes | 21c | 237.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…c6e3backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…99a4backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 15c | 114.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…da6dbacked Yes | 19c | 110.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 14c | 109$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…eab0backed Yes | 21c | 102.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…6192backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ce…f646backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 18c | 83.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 17c | 79.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fd…51c7backed Yes | 21c | 76.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…8cedbacked Yes | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d36…576ebacked Yes | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…c05ebacked Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…0f2cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ding Liren win game 4 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win game 4 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will game 4 of the World Chess Championship be a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.