Chess · resolved market
Will game 4 of the World Chess Championship be a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0856ee89117658a28592f303cb256b720db3a9aa2328b85b840b37cc41f93b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x958f…7a7dbacked No | 2c | 5,404$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +277.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 1c | 3,478$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 14c | 2,422$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.26 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked No | 34c | 1,948$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.48 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 66c | 1,559$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.06 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4b…f1e6backed No | 30c | 1,029$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 65c | 1,001$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.23 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 989.5$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 68c | 912.27$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.55 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked Yes | 77c | 770.16$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.53 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…f83bbacked No | 25c | 499.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091f…d1b2backed No | 32c | 381.25$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 34c | 338.24$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…f184backed Yes | 67c | 315.73$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…334abacked No | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 65c | 243.2$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed Yes | 76c | 230$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 72c | 222.84$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…c991backed Yes | 75c | 201.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad2…f7f0backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…1f3fbacked Yes | 76c | 196.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…044dbacked Yes | 77c | 179.33$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…bfd5backed No | 11c | 129.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 79c | 120.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…6310backed Yes | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…1f3cbacked Yes | 70c | 86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…f8c4backed Yes | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…3a54backed No | 34c | 74.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…6243backed Yes | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…e83ebacked Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb3…e68cbacked No | 35c | 59.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4b…c9fbbacked No | 34c | 50.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yes | 65c | 47.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2558…9acebacked No | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379d…54efbacked No | 34c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…6379backed Yes | 79c | 33.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…5f4dbacked Yes | 72c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276f…6b46backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will game 4 of the World Chess Championship be a draw?this page
- Will Ding Liren win game 4 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win game 4 of the World Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.