Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2f92a091b7fa75a7293f0b174c75b963cb0c83909d414eeec9027abd39251d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03cd…d809backed Up | 65c | 2,731$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Down | 37c | 1,681$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.17 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Up | 76c | 1,392$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.55 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Up | 49c | 1,202$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.63 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 60c | 1,136$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.91 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 35c | 907.87$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.73 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7278backed Up | 61c | 878.45$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a5…84bcbacked Down | 44c | 721.97$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0034…cdfdbacked Up | 67c | 665.85$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…ce3cbacked Down | 26c | 624.86$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Down | 38c | 502.73$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.03 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a4…5cbdbacked Up | 47c | 449.06$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Down | 30c | 339$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 31c | 309$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Down | 31c | 307.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed Down | 28c | 299.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +7.2wins | +0.32per pick | 42cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c06…09e4backed Down | 67c | 298.43$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Up | 70c | 278.9$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Down | 25c | 275.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Down | 39c | 253$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c92…601cbacked Down | 38c | 250.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3909…c537backed Down | 40c | 238$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdb…87d9backed Down | 43c | 224.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542b…216ebacked Up | 63c | 209.51$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb519…81ecbacked Up | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Down | 29c | 182.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…8b13backed Up | 57c | 171.4$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Down | 44c | 159.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5612…10b0backed Up | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0217…8986backed Up | 73c | 134.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…3353backed Up | 76c | 129.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…add8backed Down | 61c | 119.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed Down | 36c | 108.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b36…5f5ebacked Down | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Up | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Up | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf83…2607backed Down | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Down | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Up | 72c | 97.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ba…cf4dbacked Up | 72c | 97.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed Up | 55c | 96.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b2…b0d8backed Up | 55c | 94.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dc…967ebacked Up | 80c | 90.59$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6791…b1febacked Down | 74c | 89.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d8…3df4backed Up | 57c | 86.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Down | 54c | 80.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…b39cbacked Down | 24c | 78.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…2bdabacked Up | 56c | 68.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed Down | 58c | 56.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…66a6backed Up | 72c | 54.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…590ebacked Down | 55c | 52.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…c7a0backed Down | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 54c | 49.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…4c4cbacked Up | 67c | 49.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Up | 63c | 48.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…65c9backed Down | 30c | 47.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Up | 47c | 40.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed Up | 48c | 39.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe532…f9b9backed Up | 50c | 38.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2b81backed Down | 29c | 37.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Down | 51c | 37.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Down | 50c | 35.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…042ebacked Up | 73c | 34.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…21fbbacked Up | 72c | 33.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5595…f5e9backed Up | 67c | 29.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…4d47backed Up | 80c | 28.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fb…678abacked Up | 76c | 28.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…74fdbacked Up | 72c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…cbefbacked Up | 72c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…7956backed Down | 58c | 25.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…9a96backed Up | 52c | 24.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Up | 61c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b1…044bbacked Up | 72c | 18.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf28…5d77backed Down | 80c | 18.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…31f8backed Up | 75c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.