Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8ed8b2fb14800b418a4a3228a4474c38503389e76d2340964fece6ddcae09f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $287,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x620a…be6cbacked Yes | 4c | 24,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…5ea7backed Yes | 5c | 23,225$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.69 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 11c | 17,313$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.74 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…81d2backed Yes | 7c | 14,180$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 6c | 9,139$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.66 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,750$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.15 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a23…4454backed Yes | 21c | 5,704$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd896…58f0backed Yes | 10c | 5,156$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed Yes | 5c | 3,336$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.02 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 10c | 3,046$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.86 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 6c | 2,751$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.1 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,611$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9574…2e6ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,577$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…b996backed Yes | 1c | 2,427$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 5c | 2,154$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.41 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ff…3fcdbacked Yes | 10c | 2,010$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea30…4144backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dba…c1a7backed Yes | 8c | 1,991$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…28d9backed No | 73c | 1,959$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,942$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…d0c6backed Yes | 4c | 1,881$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,669$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…cea7backed Yes | 6c | 1,600$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed Yes | 4c | 1,579$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 5c | 1,515$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,299$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309b…13d4backed Yes | 4c | 1,216$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…8795backed Yes | 9c | 1,103$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 6c | 1,010$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed Yes | 5c | 933$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 727.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d0…918ebacked Yes | 13c | 623.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…596bbacked Yes | 6c | 574.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes | 6c | 535.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…3949backed Yes | 19c | 532.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 8c | 511.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x319f…500bbacked Yes | 18c | 500$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…8e33backed Yes | 21c | 495$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +126%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 6c | 403.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0897…5118backed Yes | 15c | 339.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd801…b39bbacked Yes | 5c | 324.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…0111backed No | 72c | 278.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 6c | 276.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ec…5f73backed Yes | 13c | 225.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 9c | 225.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…2b23backed Yes | 6c | 222.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Yes | 20c | 199.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…f218backed Yes | 6c | 190.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x384b…8fcdbacked Yes | 8c | 185.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…f36fbacked Yes | 6c | 185.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…584fbacked Yes | 10c | 177.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 71c | 161.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…567fbacked Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ace…f3dabacked Yes | 9c | 143.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…b29bbacked Yes | 20c | 135.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…dd23backed Yes | 10c | 121.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b0…db80backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 13c | 104.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…c548backed Yes | 13c | 89.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…f8e8backed Yes | 17c | 81.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked No | 72c | 47.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.