Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05821c0a21c163c04294faafa422f34efb0522455b1ca12c65365e393c41d3a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 48c | 5,292$2,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,767.09 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 60c | 3,025$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.89 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 44c | 2,338$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.97 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…9a3dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,748$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 47c | 1,721$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.29 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 36c | 1,158$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.62 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5a…df23backed Yes | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x026a…f9a0backed Yes | 69c | 904.7$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes | 53c | 851.66$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.68 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked No | 42c | 780.26$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.27 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815d…8648backed No | 19c | 710$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…1a57backed Yes | 41c | 670.04$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…e698backed Yes | 34c | 582.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…8deabacked Yes | 52c | 436.06$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.81 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…3947backed Yes | 54c | 368.52$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 362.36$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.42 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 67c | 360.42$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.48 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…7b42backed Yes | 60c | 300$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…57a6backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309b…13d4backed Yes | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 40c | 240.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.78 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8207…29d4backed No | 66c | 227.36$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a94…c35ebacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7af5…d57abacked Yes | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcb…0521backed No | 30c | 169.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…7a89backed Yes | 44c | 162.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 161.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bb…cb45backed No | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…0622backed No | 57c | 120.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…c05dbacked No | 53c | 104.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d98…00e3backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…8e16backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x598a…ef6ebacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…73e1backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b0…db80backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…1288backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ce…b139backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 53c | 97.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…423bbacked Yes | 70c | 89.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 57c | 87.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc887…869bbacked Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca4f…9f11backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d9…a756backed Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…da0cbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e0…4e5abacked Yes | 48c | 59.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed Yes | 35c | 59.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…0111backed No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38f…67adbacked Yes | 35c | 56.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…b959backed Yes | 46c | 54.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…5c20backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fca…ac29backed No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…33f6backed No | 32c | 49.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…8fa2backed No | 27c | 41.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…d046backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8741…5b0abacked No | 41c | 38.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 41c | 35.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…7347backed No | 65c | 32.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…6befbacked Yes | 72c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…3f89backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed No | 62c | 21.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.