World Politics · resolved market
Will South Korean President lift martial law by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4348938db0fc5152e8e505932393d5e9f452d5ebfc5c01fb85d5ef2bc737bb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 0c | 19,423$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3fbfbacked No | 1c | 5,166$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 1c | 4,700$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 1c | 4,616$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…7c32backed No | 1c | 3,754$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 12c | 3,554$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.08 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed No | 0c | 3,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 1c | 3,239$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 1c | 2,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…91c2backed No | 1c | 2,137$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 69c | 1,911$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.21 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 19c | 1,450$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.42 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 1c | 1,411$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…66c2backed No | 2c | 1,084$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 65c | 707.4$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.3 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…972cbacked No | 35c | 661.81$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 36c | 556.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 26c | 555$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.55 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…3fa1backed No | 30c | 502.28$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6320…ee59backed No | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…d649backed Yes | 65c | 391.66$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf73…b864backed Yes | 71c | 379.97$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…a9e5backed No | 42c | 316.82$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 18c | 265.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…c8aabacked No | 43c | 250.56$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 33c | 246.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8a…ab5fbacked No | 10c | 231.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 58c | 228.95$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…c3eebacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 38c | 167.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 23c | 160$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…7b6fbacked No | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 70c | 143.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44c0…6867backed No | 37c | 135.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…6242backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed Yes | 65c | 95.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked Yes | 68c | 73.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 71c | 70.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…0d79backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ef1ebacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed No | 40c | 49.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…3a70backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9738…9818backed No | 45c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…97dabacked Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ec…616fbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae38…f877backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 67c | 20.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.