Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc670637f8cc9a6dc828ea74e34adbc8dc0f19868ac970777022c49006cd0c739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South Alabama Jaguarsof Arkansas State Red Wolves, South Alabama Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $658,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $662,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $658,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 51c | 633,124$322,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322,477.32 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked South Alabama Jaguars | 49c | 400,000$196,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204,000 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed South Alabama Jaguars | 49c | 156,444$76,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,569.48 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed South Alabama Jaguars | 49c | 43,963$21,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,202.73 | 199 | 50.3%100 W · 99 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 50c | 7,952$3,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,972.79 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 51c | 6,121$3,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.48 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 50c | 4,003$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,009.85 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed South Alabama Jaguars | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked South Alabama Jaguars | 50c | 2,501$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.53 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed South Alabama Jaguars | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 520$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 453.88$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.88 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…fc93backed South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 423.08$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.08 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed South Alabama Jaguars | 51c | 408.16$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 365.38$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.38 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed South Alabama Jaguars | 51c | 289.95$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 269.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.75 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed South Alabama Jaguars | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…8d92backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed South Alabama Jaguars | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9a…989abacked South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…be5abacked South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 172 | 58.7%101 W · 71 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed South Alabama Jaguars | 51c | 144.12$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…277ebacked South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 130.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…bc84backed South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…8ff5backed South Alabama Jaguars | 50c | 112$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c11…b0e6backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed South Alabama Jaguars | 50c | 89.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed South Alabama Jaguars | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcecc…affebacked South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 50c | 70.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed South Alabama Jaguars | 50c | 70.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ed…e29fbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…f0ccbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 51c | 46.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…6f40backed South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked South Alabama Jaguars | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed South Alabama Jaguars | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 268 | 48.1%129 W · 139 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd05a…bf53backed South Alabama Jaguars | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…2b8bbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 51c | 24.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…7f09backed South Alabama Jaguars | 52c | 23.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 51c | 20.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 51c | 20.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…a994backed South Alabama Jaguars | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +34%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-4.5)this page
- Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. South Alabama JaguarsSouth Alabama Jaguars won
- Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. South Alabama Jaguars: O/U 154.5Over won
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-3.5)South Alabama Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.