TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Northern Kentucky Norse (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Northern Kentucky Norseof Northern Kentucky Norse, Detroit Titans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$754,549
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$754,304

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $754,549 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Northern Kentucky Norse50c653,389$329,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324,261.8735945.1%162 W · 197 L-24.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Detroit Titans50c250,000$124,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124,00021754.8%119 W · 98 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Detroit Titans50c240,032$119,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119,066.2269142.8%296 W · 395 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Detroit Titans50c59,824$29,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,8804252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Detroit Titans49c37,257$18,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,378.5890645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Detroit Titans49c11,736$5,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,807.0512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Detroit Titans47c11,350$5,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,334.34050%20 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Detroit Titans49c11,112$5,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,444.8713154.2%71 W · 60 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Detroit Titans50c11,111$5,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,555.53154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Detroit Titans50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0007353.4%39 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Detroit Titans49c5,419$2,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,670.914,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Northern Kentucky Norse52c5,400$2,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,606.2730139.2%118 W · 183 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Detroit Titans51c5,000$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,53016954.4%92 W · 77 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Detroit Titans50c4,008$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.385143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Detroit Titans50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00011555.7%64 W · 51 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Detroit Titans53c3,483$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.775,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Detroit Titans50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50017050.6%86 W · 84 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Northern Kentucky Norse70c2,800$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84021636.1%78 W · 138 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Northern Kentucky Norse49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.9914647.9%70 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Detroit Titans49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98042246.2%195 W · 227 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Detroit Titans51c791.71$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.735759.6%34 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Detroit Titans50c702$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35155749.2%274 W · 283 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Detroit Titans51c686.27$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35079448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked Detroit Titans49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2941,22727.8%341 W · 886 L-0.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Detroit Titans52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30025556.1%143 W · 112 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00b9…4ca6backed Detroit Titans50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb0…3182backed Detroit Titans51c437.5$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3841354%223 W · 190 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Detroit Titans51c410.74$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.4818046.7%84 W · 96 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Detroit Titans50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006848.5%33 W · 35 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf74a…a91cbacked Detroit Titans50c397.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Detroit Titans51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027045.2%122 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664b…00b3backed Detroit Titans52c388.39$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.8911159.5%66 W · 45 L+10.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c8c…237dbacked Northern Kentucky Norse67c287.69$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4117546.3%81 W · 94 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Northern Kentucky Norse53c264.15$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.154045%18 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed Detroit Titans51c258.82$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1324372.1%31 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+29.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe00f…c254backed Detroit Titans53c235.74$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1249056.7%51 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Detroit Titans51c235.29$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205147.1%24 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…d438backed Detroit Titans48c210.33$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1147…da78backed Detroit Titans48c210$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Detroit Titans53c206.2$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11019657.1%112 W · 84 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Detroit Titans49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Detroit Titans51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10213851.4%71 W · 67 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75da…fc93backed Detroit Titans50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Detroit Titans49c154$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8735050.3%176 W · 174 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79df…277ebacked Detroit Titans52c153.85$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806154.1%33 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Detroit Titans50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7589146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…8ff5backed Detroit Titans51c138.34$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.214055%22 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Detroit Titans51c137.25$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7023754.9%130 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a9a…989abacked Detroit Titans51c127.45$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04f2…bc84backed Detroit Titans52c125$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656654.5%36 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ea…066ebacked Detroit Titans51c125$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.757957%45 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Detroit Titans50c121.36$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.674353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc119…7d4dbacked Detroit Titans50c108$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548452.4%44 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked Detroit Titans53c103.96$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5518656.5%105 W · 81 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xef34…86b2backed Detroit Titans50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9087…d582backed Northern Kentucky Norse51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Detroit Titans48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4817258.7%101 W · 71 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Detroit Titans50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505650%28 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe0…323bbacked Detroit Titans10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106450%32 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf11e…eb4fbacked Detroit Titans48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad62…c7dfbacked Northern Kentucky Norse51c97.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c11…b0e6backed Northern Kentucky Norse52c97.42$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.761136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed Detroit Titans51c93.06$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4618646.2%86 W · 100 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed Detroit Titans51c92.01$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9315844.3%70 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Detroit Titans48c81.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5913350.4%67 W · 66 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Detroit Titans50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4062753%332 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Detroit Titans51c79.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7911147.7%53 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1c3…be5abacked Detroit Titans51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…f0ccbacked Detroit Titans52c69.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.494360.5%26 W · 17 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Northern Kentucky Norse52c61$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2823948.1%115 W · 124 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc3a…e1f0backed Detroit Titans50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.726848.1%129 W · 139 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc47d…feeebacked Detroit Titans50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-60.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Detroit Titans52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.219445.9%89 W · 105 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed85…bfacbacked Detroit Titans54c58.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.427846.2%36 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1285…2d0fbacked Northern Kentucky Norse52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56d2…7afcbacked Detroit Titans51c51.57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.32948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Detroit Titans49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512054.2%65 W · 55 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed Detroit Titans49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.53360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.3wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+25.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Detroit Titans50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2534952.1%182 W · 167 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda14…8efdbacked Detroit Titans50c48.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.341553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865a…901bbacked Detroit Titans53c46.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.812560%75 W · 50 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Detroit Titans48c40.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3929442.9%126 W · 168 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe570…b4fabacked Detroit Titans50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3603…9975backed Northern Kentucky Norse50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2db9…846cbacked Detroit Titans49c39.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.565549.1%27 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Detroit Titans52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204755.3%26 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2816…6ad7backed Detroit Titans51c37.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199257.6%53 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd902…d076backed Detroit Titans51c32.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.395657.1%32 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Northern Kentucky Norse53c31.83$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8327955.2%154 W · 125 L+22.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0bdf…7f09backed Detroit Titans53c30.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8411858.5%69 W · 49 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c9d…3e29backed Detroit Titans51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1528354.1%153 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dec…61b7backed Detroit Titans52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Northern Kentucky Norse49c25.78$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1515559.4%92 W · 63 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Northern Kentucky Norse54c25.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5897447.9%467 W · 507 L-2.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfdc…0133backed Detroit Titans52c25.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.222650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad01…6f40backed Detroit Titans51c24.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.63030%9 W · 21 L-5.2wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-35.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf389…e45dbacked Detroit Titans50c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8212…2b8bbacked Detroit Titans51c21.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ba2…8f7cbacked Detroit Titans51c21.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.077844.9%35 W · 43 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x666f…9ddfbacked Detroit Titans52c20.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62040%8 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.