World Politics · resolved market
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: D66 vs VVD
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaae6e343551fe22934156d2f7272146ae188b0fd99b956fa6df302599a0eed3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- D66of D66, VVD
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed VVD | 17c | 3,022$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.81 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked VVD | 16c | 2,389$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.33 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed VVD | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…e1cfbacked D66 | 70c | 1,381$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked VVD | 18c | 1,278$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.14 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed VVD | 28c | 947.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.09 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed VVD | 27c | 897.7$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.22 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed VVD | 31c | 799.98$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +542.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…2a10backed D66 | 73c | 735.68$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.68 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed D66 | 69c | 729.84$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…b9a1backed VVD | 15c | 724.62$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed D66 | 49c | 690.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.16 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked D66 | 2c | 607.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.35 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed D66 | 74c | 547.72$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed D66 | 73c | 499.97$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed VVD | 17c | 474.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked D66 | 68c | 429.54$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.92 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed VVD | 25c | 399.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed VVD | 31c | 382.88$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…c68bbacked VVD | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed VVD | 16c | 299.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked VVD | 23c | 288.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ff…b941backed VVD | 18c | 272.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed D66 | 68c | 233.84$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bc…1009backed D66 | 73c | 220.78$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b5…c668backed D66 | 61c | 212.94$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed D66 | 66c | 208.08$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed VVD | 32c | 201.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed D66 | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked VVD | 32c | 184.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked D66 | 74c | 169.7$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked D66 | 65c | 154.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59c…9b66backed VVD | 34c | 150.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…8694backed D66 | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67e…ca0dbacked VVD | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed VVD | 32c | 140.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…4b34backed VVD | 22c | 133.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b97…9978backed VVD | 30c | 116$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed D66 | 64c | 108.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…5400backed VVD | 22c | 107.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed VVD | 23c | 103.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…d732backed VVD | 29c | 101.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +336.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed VVD | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed VVD | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f65…90a4backed VVD | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked VVD | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed VVD | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed VVD | 18c | 82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…cdd7backed VVD | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed D66 | 70c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553c…7181backed D66 | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…276abacked D66 | 66c | 59.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc968…97e3backed D66 | 78c | 57.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked VVD | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab6…50f1backed D66 | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…506cbacked D66 | 45c | 44.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked D66 | 69c | 41.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed D66 | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…ad72backed VVD | 33c | 36.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked VVD | 29c | 34.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed D66 | 72c | 33.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed VVD | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x121c…0475backed D66 | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…3e48backed VVD | 56c | 23.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…27a8backed D66 | 61c | 20.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…b4b8backed D66 | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…ce19backed D66 | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…e1debacked D66 | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…2c5ebacked VVD | 67c | 19.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c3…7938backed D66 | 75c | 15.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +312.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21eb…ecfbbacked D66 | 70c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.