Earnings · resolved market
Will Disney say "DraftKings" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe900fe1119a6c2f29086d52a802acf08ba2207692f3c8964933c1237e551af31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 3c | 2,666$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 3c | 2,666$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 40c | 999.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 60c | 645.78$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 54c | 504.7$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.92 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed Yes | 53c | 449.99$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 48c | 267$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.44 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Yes | 60c | 230$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…53cebacked No | 29c | 200.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +240.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 187.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed No | 46c | 173.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afe…7d52backed No | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed Yes | 8c | 136.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…9589backed Yes | 75c | 133.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39ac…90fbbacked No | 52c | 131.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707f…6fc4backed Yes | 66c | 111.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed Yes | 59c | 111.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Yes | 59c | 104$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 33cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed Yes | 58c | 92.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 47c | 84.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…5ff4backed Yes | 79c | 84.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 44c | 84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 74.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 62c | 64.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…03cbbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked No | 41c | 56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked No | 45c | 55.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…672bbacked Yes | 56c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 72c | 53.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked No | 47c | 52.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…b322backed Yes | 49c | 49.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 59c | 40.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Yes | 59c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…f983backed No | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…4350backed Yes | 59c | 33.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 44c | 31.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…3040backed Yes | 50c | 26.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed Yes | 60c | 25.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd30e…4f60backed No | 47c | 21.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2633…8816backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…6dd2backed Yes | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Disney say "DraftKings" during earnings call?this page
- Will Disney say "Abu Dhabi" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Acquisition" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Buyback" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "Competition" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Cruise" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Debt" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "ESPN" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Margin" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Moana 2" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "NFL Deal" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "Subscriber" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "YouTube TV" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Zootopia" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.