Earnings · resolved market
Will Disney say "Acquisition" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87eef00dcf570d722ec98e2090bd961acc18d660bdb4d8c7ac955ffd4c863c51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 49c | 707.7$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.29 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0234…62dabacked No | 40c | 579.42$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…2773backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…5769backed Yes | 55c | 147$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 59c | 112.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8f…4dc1backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a44…9d20backed Yes | 55c | 84.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…aff8backed Yes | 77c | 84.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…5ff4backed No | 41c | 61.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x959b…35d1backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 49c | 43.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 37.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec0e…672cbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 44c | 24.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Disney say "Acquisition" during earnings call?this page
- Will Disney say "Abu Dhabi" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Buyback" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "Competition" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Cruise" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Debt" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "DraftKings" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "ESPN" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Margin" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Moana 2" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "NFL Deal" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "Subscriber" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "YouTube TV" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Zootopia" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.