Earnings · resolved market
Will Disney say "YouTube TV" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b722a51fe72c7dd45cb48492c7a9b8d837aabb30753c2f843581a3f493c938b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed No | 9c | 2,825$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…f54abacked No | 3c | 2,692$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…ec5ebacked No | 4c | 2,287$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…5769backed No | 1c | 1,840$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 58c | 1,307$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 23c | 1,021$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.59 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 9c | 960$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 59c | 332.36$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…056fbacked No | 38c | 314.27$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…ccf1backed No | 11c | 246.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…48c3backed No | 41c | 243.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…672bbacked No | 8c | 235.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd7db…40f4backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 8c | 142.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x959b…35d1backed No | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 38c | 74.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 69c | 72.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…0252backed No | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed No | 42c | 62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…9589backed Yes | 62c | 61.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked No | 42c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…f983backed Yes | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06c3…fcaebacked No | 36c | 41.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…ce36backed Yes | 72c | 40.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e2…126bbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03fe…b465backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…c4a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…6dd2backed Yes | 54c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9246…e559backed Yes | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…802abacked Yes | 53c | 20.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 56c | 18.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…4602backed Yes | 57c | 18.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd668…a01cbacked Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…fe96backed Yes | 63c | 16.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Disney say "YouTube TV" during earnings call?this page
- Will Disney say "Abu Dhabi" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Acquisition" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Buyback" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "Competition" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Cruise" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Debt" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "DraftKings" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "ESPN" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Margin" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Moana 2" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "NFL Deal" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "Subscriber" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Zootopia" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.