Earnings · resolved market
Will Disney say "NFL Deal" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92b05539a9d198afada5c423fdbfa389adeba02f9b3984f47e69686d83b72647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 61c | 540$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.95 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 38c | 450.01$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked No | 57c | 350.28$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.47 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 39c | 299.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 50c | 195.82$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…9589backed Yes | 45c | 148.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 38c | 104$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…672bbacked No | 52c | 99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed No | 64c | 67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2633…8816backed Yes | 41c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked Yes | 36c | 57.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x959b…35d1backed No | 60c | 48.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0e…672cbacked No | 45c | 41.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…221abacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78aa…7bf1backed No | 58c | 27.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…4685backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81e2…126bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Disney say "NFL Deal" during earnings call?this page
- Will Disney say "Abu Dhabi" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Acquisition" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Buyback" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "Competition" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Cruise" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Debt" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "DraftKings" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "ESPN" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Margin" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Moana 2" during earnings call?No won
- Will Disney say "Subscriber" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "YouTube TV" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Disney say "Zootopia" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.