Movies · resolved market
Will "Wicked: For Good" score at least 86 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8e20a0d5f730e171592d6e9f00f140be18fe4c5148885cda8a38eb098d4ef60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 53c | 1,158$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.36 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 860.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…b46cbacked No | 41c | 789.02$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.22 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 55c | 499.9$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.95 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…3dbfbacked Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 63c | 300$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 21c | 240.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…b7e6backed Yes | 69c | 193.6$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 60c | 180$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 26c | 171.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2808…16babacked Yes | 45c | 165$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -85%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed Yes | 37c | 148$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No | 63c | 143$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed No | 63c | 133$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 131.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.48 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 68c | 95.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 62c | 80.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 74c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed Yes | 37c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed Yes | 37c | 68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 28c | 67.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cc…9f53backed Yes | 68c | 52.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 60c | 51.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked Yes | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…67f3backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked No | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…dbf7backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 65c | 26.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 57c | 25.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…beb8backed No | 64c | 20.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 76c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…75c1backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wicked: For Good" score at least 86 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?this page
- Will "Wicked: For Good" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.