Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44b8f460526a544c66431c07c38cc599ed925e4d9374ec215fe6fb6658c04e81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $221,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa639…7135backed Yes | 4c | 17,356$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.7 | 48 | 2.1%1 W · 47 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -96%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 6c | 12,961$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.95 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 2c | 10,326$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.42 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,353$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.37 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 2c | 6,610$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.87 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,635$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 5,180$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.93 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 4,528$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 4,520$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea85…efe5backed Yes | 1c | 3,120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 62 | 14.5%9 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 7c | 2,311$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.12 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,278$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 5c | 2,234$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 7c | 2,083$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 5c | 1,869$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 5c | 1,802$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe178…0c26backed Yes | 3c | 1,746$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 6c | 1,692$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,668$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…57b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,596$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +105%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,484$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,275$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 1,151$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 999.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Yes | 7c | 813.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 2c | 806.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 5c | 800.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7eefbacked Yes | 5c | 779.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 263 | 14.8%39 W · 224 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 736.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 5c | 716.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 4c | 595.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 6c | 569.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec07…ca80backed Yes | 6c | 542.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 514.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 4c | 503.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 5c | 472.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…3265backed Yes | 2c | 459.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba75…adb4backed Yes | 2c | 448.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 260$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7119…268bbacked Yes | 5c | 253.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…2eb1backed Yes | 6c | 158.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…8034backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.