Weather · resolved market
Will it Snow in Seattle this December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf27131b2e1fbdcf70030e07567b0d496fbc271eebffd2022590c3f98e2b2222e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 793.71$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.11 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 25c | 752.26$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 729.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 43c | 528.36$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.78 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Yes | 23c | 516.29$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 55c | 350$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.5 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 49c | 289$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 14c | 284.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…9bfbbacked Yes | 5c | 263.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 66c | 231.09$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 14c | 200.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…11a2backed No | 74c | 198$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 191.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…4a7bbacked Yes | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…d4d5backed No | 59c | 169.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 120.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 109.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked No | 67c | 109.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 59c | 107.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…314cbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…41d8backed No | 69c | 96.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 42c | 76.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 63c | 66.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…78f8backed Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 20c | 60.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…7b8fbacked Yes | 46c | 60.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce53…8883backed No | 46c | 59.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 77c | 58.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Yes | 45c | 56.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 51c | 52.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 53c | 51.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked No | 49c | 50.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +40%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 66c | 50.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 31c | 45.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42ee…d049backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 70c | 43.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc200…2873backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…e673backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 79c | 35.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9138backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Yes | 47c | 25.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920c…b126backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c2…f0a4backed No | 67c | 24.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…c234backed No | 55c | 21.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…6c59backed No | 62c | 21.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will it Snow in Seattle this December?this page
- Will it Snow in Atlanta this December?No won
- Will it Snow in Boston this December?Yes won
- Will it Snow in Dallas this December?No won
- Will it Snow in New York City this December?Yes won
- Will it Snow in Phoenix this December?No won
- Will it Snow in Washington D.C. this December?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.