NFL · resolved market
Will the Houston Texans be eliminated in the Divisional Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfa228cbf742a3850f61d259905a19a8ab6446539f604195c2213c5611efc996
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 30c | 1,067$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 70c | 420$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed No | 70c | 407$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…28d0backed No | 70c | 377$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 30c | 332$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked No | 70c | 302$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 30c | 295$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 70c | 207$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 33c | 94.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607f…295fbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Yes | 58c | 42.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 54c | 34.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 60c | 18.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Houston Texans be eliminated in the Divisional Round?this page
- Will the Houston Texans be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?No won
- Will the Houston Texans be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.