NFL · resolved market
Will the Houston Texans be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4225a9de758973f03f3fd51b88e0ee8dfa52505217db527dcd14c9a62aeeebb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed No | 60c | 581$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 40c | 546$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…3734backed Yes | 40c | 479$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 40c | 382$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked No | 60c | 374$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ca…f79ebacked No | 61c | 371.48$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 60c | 318$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed No | 62c | 307$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 38c | 307$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 39c | 243.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 60c | 228$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed No | 60c | 181$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes | 40c | 172$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 40c | 94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 60c | 60.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…3cbfbacked No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 44cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Houston Texans be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?this page
- Will the Houston Texans be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?No won
- Will the Houston Texans be eliminated in the Divisional Round?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.