Venezuela · resolved market
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8d1e5e622dcef44f50b5877bada0ef0d883781eefb23c18154ba69b8b14e4db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 6c | 2,871$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 61c | 1,317$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.05 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 999.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e6…2f95backed Yes | 56c | 924.12$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 9c | 867.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +524.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed No | 70c | 762$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 38c | 690$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…c364backed No | 59c | 599.12$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 62c | 560$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed No | 69c | 545$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +318.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 35c | 517.92$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.85 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 30c | 517$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…ccc9backed Yes | 40c | 511.36$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.88 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 32c | 490.69$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.78 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…ad92backed No | 61c | 451.35$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 31c | 383$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 367.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db9…4100backed Yes | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 41c | 294.4$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -69%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…2138backed No | 78c | 253.13$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 30c | 245$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 203.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 38c | 198.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 62c | 195$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 62c | 175$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 165.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 31c | 162$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 59c | 160$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…9aa4backed No | 70c | 142.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 38c | 139$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 38c | 131.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed No | 58c | 128.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…67a1backed No | 61c | 127.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…6e5ebacked No | 58c | 120.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…fe45backed Yes | 43c | 115.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 25cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 45c | 105.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 38c | 101$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…f949backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9150…26f4backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 41c | 95.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 95.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb7…1429backed Yes | 39c | 89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 86.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 40c | 85.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6155…6cc6backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a0…5676backed No | 61c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 73c | 50.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 28c | 38.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c2…e215backed Yes | 39c | 36.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…fc5cbacked No | 61c | 36.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…e45abacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3460…edbbbacked Yes | 35c | 28.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb0…76dabacked No | 71c | 28.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…7480backed No | 63c | 27.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 44c | 23.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…607ebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ef…70e1backed No | 74c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 17, 2026?this page
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 10, 2026?No won
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.