Venezuela · resolved market
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc94ba95fdb6f818516b7df948c0bfc58c19b2a27e69b90f9c1db5f2cf46168a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 14c | 646$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 7c | 621.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 17c | 590$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 14c | 473$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 408$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed Yes | 13c | 381$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked Yes | 14c | 297$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 14c | 274$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 264.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd26e…8dc5backed No | 79c | 208.02$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 17c | 189$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 7c | 186.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 10c | 185.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed Yes | 17c | 143$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 102.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 21c | 95.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 19c | 74.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 18c | 57.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 63 | 3.2%2 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…d4c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 10, 2026?this page
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 17, 2026?No won
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 24, 2026?Yes won
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.