Venezuela · resolved market
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d6166ce1c37cadde3d0d9d038b1964f600876e692c08f3e19f1337f819647e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40b0…6452backed No | 3c | 4,100$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 15c | 2,798$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +977.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…ae74backed Yes | 70c | 1,581$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 1,454$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7f…8a2dbacked No | 70c | 857$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +175%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8885…5792backed No | 12c | 850$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed No | 14c | 750$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 36c | 603.5$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…8d0dbacked No | 71c | 507.98$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 499.99$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.99 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf96a…afaebacked No | 5c | 465.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…4c73backed Yes | 39c | 418$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd939…5969backed No | 61c | 418$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 29c | 381$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +524.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x195a…9442backed Yes | 26c | 379.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd775…7ca4backed Yes | 28c | 353.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +253.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 22c | 311.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 21c | 303.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.68 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes | 30c | 300$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 55c | 253.83$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 43c | 232.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b0…4d24backed Yes | 31c | 211.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af2…971cbacked No | 52c | 185$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…039abacked Yes | 48c | 185$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 64c | 156.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…7be3backed Yes | 38c | 133.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 55c | 122$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fef…3827backed Yes | 49c | 119$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6c…9238backed No | 51c | 119$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 41c | 118.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…e87abacked No | 51c | 108$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a4…406ebacked Yes | 49c | 108$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 30c | 105$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 65c | 104.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 30c | 99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 90.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…2138backed No | 69c | 82.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…5fddbacked Yes | 29c | 82.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 29c | 74.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 23c | 72.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 69.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2010…18febacked Yes | 22c | 61.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ec…9bd9backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…effcbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 37.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 77c | 30.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…1bf1backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed No | 69c | 27.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.4wins | -0.34per pick | 57cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 27.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…46bfbacked No | 79c | 26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…44c4backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 68c | 16.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 45cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 31, 2026?this page
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 10, 2026?No won
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 17, 2026?No won
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 24, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.