World Politics · resolved market
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1da3b067be31eb471516bd0ae8d1f85f8f6770747c34f6cbd761438fd58397de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes | 9c | 3,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 2c | 3,413$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,845$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 23c | 968$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked No | 77c | 967$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 38c | 948$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…0cf1backed Yes | 15c | 638.03$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed No | 62c | 629$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 62c | 613$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 62c | 603$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 62c | 497$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed No | 62c | 451$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 227.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 32c | 129.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x062f…aaeabacked Yes | 14c | 122.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 109$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 28c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 55.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 28c | 53.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebc…e384backed Yes | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…6ce0backed Yes | 35c | 39.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 74c | 38.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 37c | 37.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 64c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 70c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 85-89 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?this page
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win 95 or more seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 75-79 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 80-84 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win between 90-94 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win fewer than 75 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.